Hormuz is closing a little more every day
More tankers hit, a US jet stops a blockade runner, and oil won't come down from $100. Here's what is going on in the world's most watched shipping lane.
Okay, so. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow stretch of water between Iran and the Gulf states. Tankers carrying a huge share of the world's oil sail through it. Think of it as the one door out of a very full room.
What happened
On Sunday a US warplane struck the back of a Panama-flagged cargo ship that ignored the US blockade of Iran. Nobody on board was hurt. Later that day more tankers were hit. Iran's Revolutionary Guards say a supertanker struck a mine, a projectile hit another tanker on its way out, and the UAE rescued 22 crew from a burning tanker.
More than a dozen ships have been hit since late September. One data firm says oil flowing through the strait in early October was about 40% below normal. The US says it has turned back 135 ships since July.
Please note
This isn't random. According to CNN's reporting, Iran is hitting tankers to win back control of the waterway, after more and more oil had been leaving the Gulf without it.
What it means for us civilians
Oil stays above $100 a barrel. That reaches you through fuel, flights and anything that travels by ship. In the US, diesel prices near records already pushed Trump into a deal this week for Russia to ship over 300,000 tons of diesel.
On the US side, Trump has said there will be no new attack on Iran before the November 3 midterm elections. The New York Times reported that one plan discussed at Camp David was a short, heavy campaign of about three days aimed at Iran's drones, missiles and energy sites. Trump has reportedly turned down similar proposals five times in recent months.
Meanwhile, unnamed Western officials told Bloomberg that Iran kept its missile and drone factories and can refill its stocks, and one said Russia is sending Iran missiles. The White House rejects this and says US strikes destroyed Iran's missile production.
All of this sits next to a second fire. Houthi missiles from Yemen hit Riyadh's main airport three times in a week. The latest killed 12 people, including an American. Asked whether the US would join Saudi strikes, Trump said: "We may. We're going to look at it."
What we don't know yet
- Who fired the projectile that hit the outbound tanker.
- Whether Iran really is rearming with Russian help. Neither side has shown evidence.
- Whether the 'no strike before November 3' line holds if more ships are hit.
Note this down
Monday: check the oil price when markets open, and watch for new warnings to ships in the strait.